Vietnam Braces for Heavy Rainfall and Flooding as La Niña Looms
Vietnam braces for heavy rainfall and potential flooding as La Niña is expected to hit the country between October and December 2025. Meteorological agencies have issued heightened alerts, warning of increased flood risks in various regions.
La Niña, a climate phenomenon characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, is predicted to occur with a 70-71 percent probability. This event is expected to strengthen the westward push of warm surface waters, invigorating rainfall across the western Pacific basin, and amplifying flood risk in Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam.
The Central region of Vietnam, stretching from Thanh Hoa to Khanh Hoa, is especially prone to flash floods and landslides during La Niña. The risk of heavy rainfall in this area is projected to increase by 9-19 percent compared to the multi-year average. Meanwhile, the Red River Delta may face urban inundation if heavy rains coincide with late-season typhoons. Despite these predictions, there is no public evidence that any national government has declared an increased state of emergency specifically for this period.
In the Mekong Delta, compound flooding could occur due to rising Mekong River levels, high tides, and monsoon-driven sea level rise. While the projected La Niña event is characterized as weak and short-lived compared to past events, local hazards may still be significant due to rising baseline global temperatures.
The probability of La Niña easing to 54-70 percent through the winter and dropping below 55 percent in early 2026 suggests a short La Niña cycle. Despite the expected short duration, Vietnam must remain vigilant and prepare for potential flooding and its consequences. Multiple meteorological agencies have declared heightened alert status, underscoring the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks.
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