The Looming Trump Effect on US Tourism: Expert Predictions for 2021
Travel difficulties and unrest are negatively impacting tourism within China.
Travel crises and political unrest, particularly in China, have sent tourism numbers plummeting, but not for US travel. However, the sustainability of this trend might change with the constant gaze towards America’s unprecedented political figure, Trump.
In the global tourism landscape, tensions and conflicts have adversely affected China more than the US. Frankfurt and Munich, the two prominent German airports, report steady passenger traffic on US routes, even post-Trump’s second inauguration. Whereas, China’s airports seem to be losing steam, as travelers steer away from the People's Republic. In terms of global visitor numbers, the US has surpassed China since 2019. Yet, the travel industry forecasts a significant Trump Effect on US tourism in the coming months.
Economic ties between the USA and China have been front and center recently. The two nations have agreed on a new trade framework, highlighting America's growing interest in rare earths, a strategic commodity.
In Germany, passenger numbers haven't shown signs of a clear Trump effect as of yet. Munich Airport saw nearly 1.2 million passengers bound for the US between January and May, marking a 37,000 passenger increase from the previous year. Similarly, Frankfurt Airport observed a 7,600 passenger jump in the first four months of 2021, excluding May.
However, the consensus within the industry is that the second term of Trump will negatively impact the US tourism sector. According to a joint estimate by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) based in London and Oxford Economics, the US may face a revenue loss of over $12 billion in 2021 due to phobias about traveling to the country stemming from Trump's policies and rhetoric.
China flights to and from Munich and Frankfurt have already reported a decrease in travelers this year. In Munich, the number dropped by 1,300 to nearly 203,000 passengers in the first five months, and Frankfurt saw 180,300 flight passengers in the first four months, a 27,000 decrease from the previous year. These declines are partly attributed to reduced flight offerings and lower passenger numbers on international routes compared to 2019.
Probing Deeper:
Trump's immigration policies and travel bans have drawn concerns among industry experts, fearing a significant drop in US tourism revenue. The Trump Effect, as forecasted by experts, is rooted in the negative impact of his travel bans and negative political rhetoric. This trend may result in estimated losses of about $12.5 billion by 2025 due to reduced international arrivals and a chilling effect on the U.S.'s appeal as a tourist destination [1].
More specifically, Trump's expansion of travel bans affects 19 countries, making it difficult for tourists, immigrants, students, and exchange visitors from multiple nations, including Iran, Yemen, and various Latin American countries like Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela, to secure visas [2]. These bans have stifled the flow of potential visitors and tourism-related economic activities. Moreover, Trump's harsh immigration stance and rhetoric have stirred apprehension among potential tourists and immigrants, leading to decreased interests in traveling to the US [3].
Sources:
[1] ntv.de
[2] mbr.de
[3] Statista, "Foreign-born Population in the United States (U.S.) by Origin Country," accessed May 28, 2021.
In light of the forecasts, the Trump Effect on US tourism may lead to a shift in global visitors' lifestyle choices, with some opting to avoid traveling to the United States due to concerns about Trump's policies and rhetoric. Additionally, US community and employment policies, under the influence of Trump's administration, could potentially impact future travel trends as citizens of affected countries might reconsider employment opportunities in the US, taking into account the travel restrictions and perceived hostility towards certain nationalities.
